FIFA WORLD CUP 2018: Matchday Three Predictions for Groups A and B

I’m still finishing up watching some of the games from Matchday Two, but that is briefly on hold —Russia and Uruguay are kicking off soon.  I’ve been looking forward to this game all tournament!  Before watching, here are my predictions.

Group A:  MUCH better performance by Saudi Arabia in their second match.  Uruguay is a VERY good team, and Saudi Arabia only allowed one goal to them.  Kudos to the Saudis.  However, the goal they allowed came on a complete defensive collapse – on a set piece, no less.  How in the WORLD could they have let someone as dangerous as Luis Suárez be completely by himself in front of a yawning net?  Especially with no one guarding that post?  It blew my mind.  Suárez scored easily and took a bite out of Saudi Arabia’s chances of the second round.  Good for him, but shame on the Saudis.

Egypt was outclassed by a much better team in their game.  Russia looked great once again.  However, take this with a grain of salt.  Their first two games came against two of the three weakest teams in the tournament.[1] [2]  Having said that, how different would Russia’s tournament have gone if Alan Dzagoev hadn’t been injured in the first game?  That injury brought Denis Cheryshev into the game.  Cheryshev has been the star of the tournament thus far, scoring two goals in the first game for the match ball and an additional goal in the second.

Russia’s beautiful run will hit a speed bump in the final game.  Uruguay is one of the best teams at the tournament.  Suárez and Edinson Cavani are a lethal 1-2 punch up front, and Russia doesn’t have the personnel to contain both of them.  Captain Diego Godín anchors a strong back line that includes defensive stalwarts Martín Cáceres and José Giménez.  The three of them should be able to limit the Russian scoring.  Uruguay should win this game, and, with the tournament that goalkeeper Fernando Muslera has been having, it could easily be by shutout.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be fiercely competitive, but the quality of play won’t necessarily be good.  If anyone scores at all, it will be Egypt.  Both teams have been disappointing thus far, which is a shame.  Egypt’s Mohamed Salah scored 32 goals for Liverpool this year; he has deserved better.  His injury in the Champions League Final certainly changed his team’s chances.  It would be nice to see him score in the last game.

Group B:  Iran fought bravely against Spain and, quite frankly, deserved to win.  A string of bad luck kept them from winning this game.  In the other match, Cristiano Ronaldo made a beautiful play on a corner to score early, and that was all Portugal needed.  I was surprised that the game finished 1-0, however.  Portugal is so much better than Morocco.  By the way, I sincerely hope that Nordin Amrabat does not play.  After the concussion he suffered in the first game, he should have been sent home.  His health and well-being are much too important to take lightly.

Who wins and loses this group will come down to the scores of the final games.  Portugal and Spain are identical in points, goal differential, and goals scored.  I see Portugal winning the group after beating Iran by two goals while Spain only beats Morocco by one.  Now – what if Spain and Portugal both draw or win their games by an identical margin?  That would make things get fun.  They’d be identical in each part of the first tiebreaker, so then it would come down to Fair Play Points.  Currently, Portugal has received two yellow cards, while Spain has only received one, so if the yellow card tally remains the same, Spain would win the group and Portugal would come in second.  But what if Spain gets one more yellow card than Portugal in its final game?  It would come down to drawing of lots to see who wins the group!  How crazy would that be?

All in all, this should be a fun day of games.  I’m certainly looking forward to it.  Feel free to comment your thoughts and predictions, or make fun of mine.

Monday, June 25, 2018, 7 am MST

[1] Panama is the third.

[2] This is one of the beauties of being the host.  However, luck came into this as well; they just as easily could have drawn with Colombia, Sweden, and Nigeria, making this a much different tournament for the Russians.