FIFA WORLD CUP 2018: Matchday Three Predictions for Groups G and H

Plus, a recap of Groups E and F

What a day what a day what a DAY!!!!!!!  I had a blast watching these games.  Germany-South Korea was a game for the ages.  South Korea played their hearts out, as I expected.  The winning team had two goals, as I expected.  But I did NOT in my wildest dreams think that South Korea would win 2-0.[1]  When I wrote the article yesterday, I almost predicted a 1-0 win for South Korea, but I shook my head, laughed, and said, “You’re crazy.”  Plus, I figured that if I was wrong, I would lose all credibility in the soccer community before any sportswriting career I could possibly have would even get started.  But I digress.  South Korea’s first goal and subsequent VAR[2] review in the third minute of stoppage time was a great moment of dramatic theater.  On the field, it was disallowed for offside.  VAR review showed, however, that before the ball reached the South Korean attacker who was in an offside position, a German defender deliberately played the ball, but his attempted clearance went wrong, sending the ball backward.  Since the attacker directly received the ball from a deliberate play by a defender, offside was cancelled, and the goal was a good goal.[3]  Then Germany had their sure-footed goalkeeper – Manuel Neuer, who is the best ball-handling (with his feet) keeper since the great French keeper Fabien Barthez – play up in attack, since they needed two quick goals to advance out of the group stage.  After a ferocious attack, South Korea’s Ju Se-jong took control of the ball and bombed a deep lob toward the empty German net.  Son Heung-min reached the ball deep in the German penalty area and poked the ball in uncontested to cap off the 2-0 win.[4]  Wow.

Sweden-Mexico was also a well-played game.  Sweden dominated, even though it took them 50 minutes to score the first goal.  I figured they would take out their frustrations from the Germany game on a very confident and talented Mexican side, but I did not expect a shutout.  I found the score line interesting – the only other time that Sweden and Mexico squared off in a World Cup match was in the group phase in 1958, and Sweden won, 3-0.[5]

Germany failed to advance out of the group stage for the first time ever (including their time as West Germany) and failed to get beyond the first round for the first time since 1938, which was a straight knock-out tournament.[6]  But it goes deeper than that.  Post World War II, they have entered 17 of the 18 tournaments (including their time as West Germany).[7]  This is one of only five times that they failed to reach the semi-finals,[8] which is mind-blowing.  What a tournament this has been.

Group E was not as dramatic, but it was still entertaining.  Brazil-Serbia was a “win and you’re in” game for both teams, and Brazil’s talent won out in the end.[9]  Their first goal was one that helps give soccer the nickname of “the beautiful game,” and Thiago Silva’s headed goal off of the corner was another one that had me throwing my arms into the air.  The other game was outstanding – Costa Rica played an outstanding game.  Switzerland almost won, 2-1, but Costa Rica was awarded an obvious penalty late in stoppage time.  Captain Bryan Ruiz’s ensuing kick clanged off the crossbar, but the goal was scored anyway.  The rebound off the crossbar ricocheted in off of Swiss goalkeeper Yann Sommer’s head for the funniest own goal I have ever seen.  It had Sommer, his coaching staff, and his teammates laughing.[10]  Now for today’s games.  Again, even though they started almost an hour ago, I have not watched a thing.

Group G:  This group has two of the most talented teams at this World Cup – and two favorites to win the whole thing – plus two teams that are among the least-talented.  England and Belgium started slowly but then rolled to victory in their second matches, with Belgium beating Tunisia 5-2 and England smoking the hopelessly overmatched Panamanians, 6-1.[11]  On the final matchday, I see Tunisia beating Panama 3-1 and the English and Belgians playing to a draw, making England the group winner and Belgium the runner-up based on the tiebreaker.

(Have to stop writing here to make a doctor’s appointment.  More when I return.)

Group H: (Returned.  Like I said, I’ve watched nothing yet and know nothing yet.)  This group has been described as topsy-turvy, but serious students of the game could see that this was a loaded, evenly-matched group.  Japan and Senegal are far better than casual fans realize.  Anyway…after an exciting 2-2 draw between Japan and Senegal, those two teams each have four points.  Since Colombia beat an overrated Poland team, 3-0, Poland is out.  Look for Senegal and Colombia to draw and Japan to defeat Poland.  Japan will win the group and face a loaded Belgian squad in the Round of 16.  Senegal will be the runners-up and face another loaded squad in England.

What a fun group phase this has been!  I can’t wait to see which predictions of mine actually happen.  Leave any mocking or praising or general discussion comments below, and I hope everyone enjoys/enjoyed the games.

Thursday, June 28, 2018, 11:03 am MST

[1] South Korea winning wasn’t a TOTAL surprise to me.  I knew they were capable of it, especially since they consistently tend to be overlooked by the soccer pundits outside of Asia – I just thought Germany would pull this game out of nowhere like they tend to do.

[2] VAR = Video Assistant Referee.  It’s one of the best changes soccer has ever made.  If you’re unfamiliar with it, look it up.  I’d give you a link, but every article I saw was poorly written.  Hmmm…maybe I have my next topic…

[3] In a soccer match that I called this past season, I was the covering assistant referee on a play where a defender’s misplay waved off what would have been offside.  The loud-mouthed assistant coach for the defensive team was right behind me blasting me.  I hope he was watching this game.

[4] This is the first hockey-style empty-net goal that I can remember in a soccer match.

[5] Sweden hosted this World Cup.  It was their greatest success – they reached the final but lost, 5-2, to Brazil, who had a 17-year-old phenom.  Who?  Edson Arantes do Nascimento – better known as Pelé.

[6] Given that Austria’s team had just been absorbed by them due to the Anschluss, this feels like sweet justice.

[7] They were banned from the 1950 tournament.

[8] 1962, 1978 (when the second round was a second group phase.  It was weird.), 1994, and 1998 were the others.

[9] Surprisingly to me, Serbia did not employ the “foul the heck out of Neymar” strategy that the other two teams in the group did.  No complaints from me, though.  I don’t like that type of strategy.

[10] After something like that, what other reaction is there?  It was downright hilarious.  And lucky for Costa Rica.  Imagine if that had kept Switzerland out of the second round…

[11] Panama shouldn’t even be here, and it shows.  No, I’m not saying this as a bitter American soccer fan – they truly shouldn’t.  They’re only here because they were awarded a shadow-goal against Costa Rica that wasn’t even close.  It was short of the line by a good two feet.  Then again, the US didn’t deserve a berth, given their poor play.  Had the US bothered to beat or tie a punchless Trinidad and Tobago side, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.