WORLD CUP 2018: Preview of the Final

Plus, a recap of the semis

The final.  Wow.  What a tournament this has been!  France completely stymied the Belgians, who had looked like an offensive juggernaut at earlier points in the tournament.  Belgium had not lost A GAME since September and had posted one of the all-time great comebacks against Japan in the Round of 16.  They always seemed to find a way, until this game.  But they certainly had their chances.  How different would the game have been had French goalkeeper Hugo Lloris not made that spectacular diving save that denied Eden Hazard early on?  France has improved with every game.  They have played better in the knockout phase than I had expected them to, and that is why, at the beginning of the Round of 16, I chose Belgium to win this game.

Croatia-England was yet another stomach-punch in the lore of the English national team.  Despite their laundry list of great players, past and present – England has not been very successful in major international tournaments.  They’ve made the semifinals three times.  Total.  Last time?  1990.  Time before that?  When they hosted and won the tournament in 1966.  But it hasn’t been a lack of talent or a washed-up team that has kept them from being more successful.  Some of it has been subpar coaching, but some of it has just plain been bad luck.[1]  Regardless of their history, this was the most successful English team in an international tournament in quite some time.  Early on, England’s Kieran Tripper scored on an absolutely GORGEOUS free kick.  With a 1-0 lead five minutes into the game, they had to feel good about themselves, but they also had to know that one goal wasn’t going to beat the Croatians.  And England will forever look back at this game as one that got away.  Harry Kane had a gift-wrapped chance to make it 2-0 early in the first half, but he clanged it off the post.[2]  A game like this, where England left scoring chances on the table, was ripe for a Croatian comeback.  It was all but inevitable.  And in the 68th minute, Croatia’s Ivan Perišić tied it up.  Neither team scored again in regulation, and England had YET ANOTHER knockout-stage game go to what Americans and Canadians call overtime but every other country on the planet calls extra time.[3]  It seemed pre-scripted that Croatia would score in extra time, and that’s exactly what happened in the 109th minute when Mario Mandžukić scored his beauty.

The Final:  I picked Croatia to win the Cup at the beginning of the Round of 16.  I did so based on them playing against Belgium, and I did so based on how every team was playing at the time of my predictions.  However, France is now playing slightly better than the Croatians.  Having said that, Croatia always seems to find a way, and this tournament seems to be one where they have the golden touch.  No matter what, they find a way.  In a closely matched final, intangibles can sometimes put one of the teams over the top.  Sometimes coaching does.  This will be a memorable game for both teams.  Croatia’s magical run will end here.  France’s defense will be too much Croatia to break, and their counterattack will break through, giving France their second World Cup.  Prediction: France 1, Croatia 0

Until next time…

Sunday, July 15, 2018, 6:00 am MST

[1] Mexico, 1970: Goalkeeper Gordon Banks missed the quarterfinal against West Germany due to food poisoning. England blew a 2-0 lead.  First German goal came after forward Francis Lee was hit in the family jewels by a cannon of a shot, and the ball trickled to Franz Beckenbauer, who dribbled past the distracted Englishmen and buried the goal.  The shell-shocked English never recovered.  Spain, 1982: England did not lose any games, but they went out in the second group stage.  (Look it up.  It was weird.)  Mexico, 1986:  In the quarterfinal, Argentina’s Diego Maradona scored the Hand of God goal, where he threw the ball past English keeper Peter Shilton in an aerial play.  Somehow the referee and linesman failed to see it, making them the only two people out of the over 100,000 in Estadio Azteca and the millions watching on television who DIDN’T see that Maradona threw it in.  The goal counted in one of the biggest travesties in the history of sports.  Then, while England was still reeling from the injustice, he scored the Goal of the Century, giving Argentina a 2-0 lead.  Italy, 1990:  England lost the semifinal to West Germany on penalty kicks.  England, Euro 96:  England lost the semifinal to Germany on penalty kicks.  France, 1998:  David Beckham got the infamous (harsh) straight red card shortly into the second half in the Round of 16 against Argentina.  Despite this, England scored the go-ahead goal on a header by Sol Campbell, but the goal was denied for a questionable foul by forward Alan Shearer against Argentine goalkeeper Carlos Roa.  England lost on penalties.  Portugal, Euro 2004:  In the quarterfinal, England had another Sol Campbell goal on a corner denied by an iffy foul call, this time by John Terry against Portuguese goalkeeper Ricardo.  England lost on penalties, with Ricardo making the winning kick.  Germany, 2006:  In the quarterfinal against Portugal, David Beckham was injured early.  Wayne Rooney was infamously sent off late.  England lost on penalties yet again.  (To be fair, they weren’t going to beat France in the semis, but still…)  South Africa, 2010:  Got thumped by Germany in the Round of 16, but had a clear goal denied just before halftime that would have tied the game at two and made things VERY different.  Ukraine/Poland, Euro 2012:  Lost to Italy in the quarterfinals on penalties.

[2] Granted, it was a VERY tight angle, but he still must feel like he should have scored there.  By the way, I know the AR flagged him as offside, but the VAR would have overturned the incorrect call.

[3] The 1966 final went to extra time.  Since then, eight out of their 15 knockout-phase matches have gone to extra time.